Why we cannot predict earthquakes

Abstract

The idea that earthquakes should announce themselves with a precursory alarm is central to their prediction. If stresses build up for hundreds or thousands of years, one imagines the earth sends out some sorts of signals as a fault reaches the breaking point, Hough suggests. She leads us through the litany of signals we have sought accelerated strain changes, transient uplift of the ground, gas emanations, electrical and magnetic anomalies, changes in seismic velocity, micro-earthquakes and water-table changes and shows how each has failed the critical tests that scientists have erected to distinguish between coincidence and consequence. See Haiti for a grim and embarrassing reminder of seismologys shortcomings.