Forecasting Future Trends in Crude Oil Production in India by Using Box-Jenkins Arima

Abstract

The objective of this article is to forecast India's crude oil output patterns in the future. Specifically, this article examines whether data on crude oil output in India may be modified to ARIMA models for the purpose of estimate and forecasting. This article makes use of monthly data on Indian crude oil output. The Box Jenkins autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) forecasting method was used to anticipate future patterns in the Indian crude oil market. The ARIMA model clearly indicates that the average monthly percentage rise in crude oil output will be.01 percent between December 2019 and November 2020, corresponding to a 0.36 percent increase in crude oil prices over the same time. The results of the study would be helpful for the investors of the commodity market to make their investment strategies keeping in mind the predicted future fluctuations. Further, it will also assist the Indian government to make necessary policies to absorb the volatility and to control prices of crude oil.