ASSESSMENT OF THE IMPACT OF EXTERNAL FACTORS ON THE DEMAND AND SUPPLY OF FINANCIAL SERVICES IN THE EU COUNTRIES

Abstract

The purpose of the study is to scientifically substantiate the methodological approach of structural modeling of the impact of external factors of demand and supply, and transform the results into a plan of management actions. The main objectives of the study are to identify and select external factors of demand and supply in the countries of the European Union, construct binary and weight matrices of their relationships, calculate indicators of total impact and total dependence and MICMAC classification, establish correspondences between factors and marketing objectives and form on this basis a prioritized plan of management actions for financial institutions and a vector of marketing vectors for the financial services market of the countries of the European Union. The methodology involves the use of the Delphi expert analysis method for selecting factors and fixing direct cause-and-effect relationships. Binary and weighted dependency matrices were constructed, «edges with predicates» were formed by the types of impacts, serial indicators of total impact and total dependence were calculated taking into account indirect paths, factors were classified in the Matrices d’Impacts Croisés Multiplication Appliquée à un Classement plane (MICMAC), and «factor → marketing objective» correspondence matrices were constructed with estimates. The results showed that on the demand side, the leading driver is the macro conditions of households, while demographic shifts and financial inclusion form sustainable vectors of strengthening trust and expanding digital channels. As a result, a priority ranking of factors and an agreed action plan in short-term, medium-term, and long-term priorities were formed.