Financial ripple effect in complex adaptive supply networks: an agent-based model

Abstract

Tightening lending standards are motivating companies to adopt supply chain financing, with invoice backed lending to remedy financial stress. These financial objects depend on company-to-company relationships. The accumulation of these dyadic relationships creates complex supply network topologies. Companies within these networks are selfish and have varying degrees of bargaining power. To remain operational, they maximise their liquidity by negotiating longer repayment terms and cheaper financing, thus distributing risk onto weaker companies and propagating financial stress. To study this phenomenon, we created an agent-based supply network simulation model capturing these behaviours. We investigate structural conditions that make supply networks vulnerable to financial stress propagation and the resultant financial ripple effects using survivability analysis. We found firms with higher bargaining power are disproportionately more exposed to network risk. In diamond-shaped networks, firms occupying lower tiers are critical in financial stress propagation, becoming deep-tier nexus suppliers. Our results are relevant to industries with heterogeneous network composition. Practitioners must mitigate the effects of vulnerable network structures with careful supply chain financing design.