Investigating the Development of Solar Power Plants to Improve the Fulfillment Ratio Using System Dynamics Model

Abstract

The benefits of solar power plants for the environment and society are very significant in reducing dependence on fossil fuels. Therefore, it needs to model and analyze the relationship between the system components of solar power plants to increase its fulfillment ratio. System dynamics models can analyze the interrelationship of factors in complex systems that influence the development of solar photovoltaics (PV). System dynamics simulations are used to evaluate important issues in solar PV development and analyze the relationships between complex and non-linear variables. Scenario modelling was developed to increase the fulfillment ratio through the expansion of the installed capacity of rooftop solar power plant pembangkit listrik tenaga surya (PLTS) and the implementation of Feed-in Tariff (FIT). The pricing policy of the FIT scheme has affected the revenues, profits, and return on investment (ROI) of rooftop solar PV. FIT pricing needs to be considered to guarantee a purchase price that is commensurate with the resources and capital spent to produce energy. Through the FIT scenario, the ROI of rooftop solar PV can increase from around 56.9% to 170.6% in the first 10-year period (2023-2032).