Attributing Greenland Warming Patterns to Regional Arctic Sea Ice Loss

Abstract

Observed and model-projected sea ice loss enhances warming in the Arctic. We investigate to what extent warming on Greenland can be attributed to changes in the sea ice cover in different parts of the Arctic. Using Climate Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 model projections of the future, we perform multilinear regressions to separate the simulated warming on Greenland in two parts; one following global warming and one following regional sea ice changes. This reveals the magnitude and spatial pattern of warming on Greenland, which can be attributed to sea ice loss in different Arctic regions. The results indicate that the impact of sea ice loss is largely confined to the coastal parts of Greenland. We find the strongest links to sea ice loss in adjacent regions; remote regions only have a limited impact. Overall, warming attributable to sea ice variability is a minor contribution but can be a dominant signal locally in coastal regions.