Production Forecasting of Indonesian Traditional Medicine (Jamu) Based on Information System by Using Single Exponential Smoothing Method

Abstract

Indonesia is widely known as a country with rich biodiversity. Medicinal plants that thrive in Indonesia are utilized as traditional medicine locally known as “jamu”. One of the islands famous for jamu production is Madura Island. As a well-known jamu producer, Madura Island are facing problems related to jamu production. Procurement of medicinal plants is not well controlled. There are no reports of spices procurement and production. When there is an increase in demand or sale of certain jamu, the stock of jamu is commonly inadequate/insufficient This may result in order cancellation. The solution to this problem is to create a production forecasting information system by using single exponential smoothing. The data used is a weekly report on the number of sales of 3 types of jamu from August to October 2024. Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) testing using an alpha value of 0.1 to 0.9 resulted in “high” accuracy and the forecasted values were close to the actual data values.