Assessment of the Effects of Human Mobility Restrictions on COVID-19 Prevalence in the Global South

Abstract

Governments and policymakers have initiated a wide range of responses to mitigate the propagation of the disease. These responses have consisted of different policies and the devising of protocols and standards. As these responses proliferate, there is a pressing need to evaluate the stringency, effectiveness, and results of imposing them on the COVID-19 infection rates. The aim of this study is to measure the effects of policy control and restrictions on COVID-19 prevalence in the Global South. Six policy responses to COVID-19 were used to investigate and explain the stringency and effectiveness of the imposed policies in mitigating the disease’s transmission. The evaluation of these policies was based on the population’s responses as of 4 June 2020 compared to an assessment period (the median value from the five-week period between 3 January and 6 February 2020). Using geographic information systems (GIS) techniques and the analytical hierarchical process (AHP) method, an overall government response and stringency index was constructed as an effective proxy to assess populations’ responses to such policies in the Global South countries. The findings show variations in people’s responses toward the lockdown policies imposed by the countries in the Global South.