The potential impacts of the EVFTA on Vietnam’s exports of agricultural products: an application of SMART model

Abstract

The study aims to identify and analyze the impact of the European Union - Vietnam Free Trade Agreement (EVFTA) on Vietnam’s exports of agricultural products. The secondary data from the World Bank and the SMART model under two scenarios are applied. The simulations suggest that the tariff elimination would result in a significant increase in Vietnam’s agricultural exports. The exported value of fish products from Vietnam shows the highest increase. In one scenario, as the European Union (EU) lowers the tariff to other competing countries, Vietnam’s exports of agricultural products exhibit minor reductions compared to the other scenario. Through examining the slight reduction and the revealed comparative advantage of Vietnam, it is found that crustaceans, mollusks, and other aquatic invertebrates are among the agricultural export products of Vietnam that potentially take the most advantage from the EVFTA.