Modeling the cost-effectiveness of interventions to prevent plague in madagascar

Abstract

Plague (Yersinia pestis) remains endemic in certain parts of the world. We assessed the cost-effectiveness of plague control interventions recommended by the World Health Organization with particular consideration to intervention coverage and timing. We developed a dynamic model of the spread of plague between interacting populations of humans, rats, and fleas and performed a cost-effectiveness analysis calibrated to a 2017 Madagascar outbreak. We assessed three interventions alone and in combination: expanded access to antibiotic treatment with doxycycline, mass distribution of doxycycline prophylaxis, and mass distribution of malathion. We varied intervention timing and coverage levels. We calculated costs, quality-adjusted life years (QALYs), and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios from a healthcare perspective. The preferred intervention, using a cost-effectiveness threshold of $1350/QALY (GDP per capita in Madagascar), was expanded access to antibiotic treatment with doxycycline with 100% coverage starting immediately after the first reported case, gaining 543 QALYs at an incremental cost of $1023/QALY gained. Sensitivity analyses support expanded access to antibiotic treatment and leave open the possibility that mass distribution of doxycycline prophylaxis or mass distribution of malathion could be cost-effective. Our analysis highlights the potential for rapid expansion of access to doxycycline upon recognition of plague outbreaks to cost-effectively prevent future large-scale plague outbreaks and highlights the importance of intervention timing.