Improving project control and guidance through a time-frame simulation approach

Abstract

Nowadays projects dynamicity and complexity make the control process highly critical. The existing planning and control techniques have frequently proved inadequacy to manage the present challenge. The paper proposes a simulative approach to managing with more effectiveness projects life cycle. The appositely developed simulation model is populated with both deterministic and stochastic elements: the formers come from the project plan; the stochastic elements have been introduced in order to consider the probabilistic nature of activities duration. In the planning phase the model generates a "baseline pencil" that gives a more confident estimation of the time to complete the project. During the execution phase the model is able to store the data related to the ongoing activities and updates in real-time the estimation of the project completion. Concurrently, it allows the calculation of specific performance indexes which permit to identify in real-time possible occurring "warnings" to users and suggest potential solutions. © 2010 IFIP International Federation for Information Processing.