SIMULATING JIT IMPLEMENTATION IN PREFABRICATED CONSTRUCTION: A DIGITAL FRAMEWORK FOR SUPPLY CHAIN OPTIMIZATION

Abstract

Construction industry efficiency continues to lag behind other sectors, particularly in prefabricated component supply chain management. While Just-in-Time (JIT) principles have proven successful in manufacturing, their application to construction supply chains remains challenging due to inherent variability in construction processes. This paper presents a Monte Carlo simulation approach to evaluate JIT implementation in prefabricated construction supply chains, focusing on modeling uncertainty in supply chain activities. The research employs triangular distributions to capture optimistic, most probable, and pessimistic scenarios for key construction activities. Through statistical analysis of 10,000 simulation iterations, we demonstrate the probability distributions of project completion times and identify critical activities affecting JIT implementation. Results show an 80% probability of project completion within 21 days and highlight specific activities, such as beam transport with a mean duration of 4.88 days, that significantly impact supply chain performance. The study reveals how activities with higher variability, particularly in beam lifting and quality control, can become potential bottlenecks in JIT implementation. This research contributes to both theory and practice by providing a probabilistic framework for evaluating JIT strategies in construction and identifying critical factors for successful implementation.