Geo-spatial risk factor analysis for drug overdose death in South Florida from 2014 to 2019, and the independent contribution of social determinants of health

Abstract

Purpose: The physical environment and social determinants of health have been shown to influence health behaviors including drug use and fatal drug overdose. The current research examines the effects of the built environment, social determinants of health measures and aggregated risk from the built environment at neighborhood-level on drug overdose death locations in Miami-Dade County, Florida. Methods: Risk Terrain Modeling (RTM) was used to assess the place features risk factors that significantly increase the risk of drug overdose death spatially in Miami-Dade County ZIP Code Tabulation Areas, Florida from 2014 to 2019. An aggregated neighborhood risk of fatal drug overdose measure was developed by averaging the risk per grid cell from the RTM within census block groups each year. Six logistic and zero-inflated regression models were built to examine the effects of three indices of incident-specific social determinants of health (IS-SDH) measures and aggregated risk measures separately, and simultaneously on drug overdose death locations each year. Results: Seven place features including parks, bus stops, restaurants and grocery stores were significantly related to the occurrence of fatal drug overdoses. When examined separately, one or more indices of the IS-SDH were significant covariates of drug overdose locations in some years. When examined simultaneously, the three indices of the IS-SDH and aggregated risk of fatal drug overdose measure could be all significant in certain years. Conclusions: The patterns of high-risk areas and place features identified from the RTM related to drug overdose deaths may be used to inform the placement of treatment and prevention resources. A multi-factor approach that combines an aggregated neighborhood risk measure reflecting the risk from the built environment and the incident-specific social determinants of health measures can be used to identify the drug overdose death locations in certain years.