Urban Pluvial Flood Resilience Evolution and Dynamic Assessment Based on the DPSIR Model: A Case Study of Kunming City, Southwest China

Abstract

The increasing frequency of extreme weather events and rapid urbanization has exacerbated pluvial flood risks, underscoring the urgent need to strengthen the assessment of pluvial flood resilience in China’s southwestern mountainous regions. Kunming—a plateau basin city—was selected as a case study, and an urban pluvial flood resilience assessment system was developed based on the DPSIR model. The analytic hierarchy process (AHP), entropy method, and game theory-informed combination weighting were applied to determine indicator weights, while the extension cloud model was utilized to quantitatively assess resilience evolution from 2013 to 2022. The results reveal that: (1) Kunming’s pluvial flood resilience experienced a clear three-stage evolution—initial construction (Level II), resilience enhancement (Level III), and resilience reinforcement (Level IV)—reflecting a transition from rudimentary resilience to advanced adaptive capacity; (2) the ranking of primary indicator weights is as follows: Driving Forces > Pressure > State > Response > Impact, with Flood Disaster Risk (P6), Flood Disaster Early Warning Capability (R1), and Topographic and Geomorphological Characteristics (P7) identified as key influencing factors; (3) marked disparities exist across the five dimensions: the Driving Forces dimension demonstrates increasing economic support; the Pressure dimension reflects structural vulnerabilities and climate variability; the State and Impact dimensions advance incrementally through policy implementation; and the Response dimension has substantially improved due to smart city technologies, although persistent gaps in inter-agency emergency coordination remain. This research offers a scientific basis for enhancing pluvial flood resilience in southwestern mountainous cities.