The fractional-order discrete COVID-19 pandemic model: stability and chaos

Abstract

This paper presents and investigates a new fractional discrete COVID-19 model which involves three variables: the new daily cases, additional severe cases and deaths. Here, we analyze the stability of the equilibrium point at different values of the fractional order. Using maximum Lyapunov exponents, phase attractors, bifurcation diagrams, the 0-1 test and approximation entropy (ApEn), it is shown that the dynamic behaviors of the model change from stable to chaotic behavior by varying the fractional orders. Besides showing that the fractional discrete model fits the real data of the pandemic, the simulation findings also show that the numbers of new daily cases, additional severe cases and deaths exhibit chaotic behavior without any effective attempts to curb the epidemic.