Macroeconomic effects of global value chainsin the trade balance

Abstract

This article analyzes the macroeconomic effect of the Global Value Chains (CGV) on the trade balance, together with their influence on the economic policies that were traditionally designed to modify their result (for example: the real devaluation of the domestic currency). With this objective, we estimated their impact in the trade balance of 48 countries in America, Europe, Asia and Oceania, during the period 1995-2011. The results arrived show that a greater participation in them generates, as a direct effect, an increase in the trade balance deficit and, as indirect effect, an increase in the income elasticity of the demands for exports and imports, together with a decrease in the sensibility of trade flows to changes in the multilateral real exchange rate.