ISELDP: An Enhanced Dropout Prediction Model Using a Stacked Ensemble Approach for In-Session Learning Platforms

Abstract

High dropout rates remain a significant challenge in Massive Open Online Courses (MOOCs), making early identification of at-risk students crucial. This study introduces a novel approach called In-Session Stacked Ensemble Learning for Dropout Prediction (ISELDP), which predicts student dropout during course sessions by combining multiple base learners—Adaptive Boosting (AdaBoost), Random Forest (RF), Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost), and Gradient Boosting—into a stacked ensemble with a Multi-Layer Perceptron (MLP) serving as the meta-learner. To optimise model performance, hyperparameters were tuned using Grid Search. The proposed method was evaluated under two scenarios using in-session student interaction data, one with imbalanced data and another with balanced data. Results demonstrate that ISELDP achieves an average accuracy of 88%, outperforming individual baseline models with improvements of up to 2% in accuracy and 2.4% in F1-score.