Analysis of Coastal Environmental Vulnerabilities in the Municipality of Niterói, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, in the Face of Sea Level Rise Projections

Abstract

It is estimated that around 10% of the world’s population lives in low-lying coastal areas, with an altitude of up to 10 m: considered vulnerable to unequivocal sea level rise, as result of climate change. This study sought to assess the coastal environmental vulnerabilities of the municipality of Niterói, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, in these lowlands, through of an analysis matrix, considering sea level rise projections for 2100. The matrix was applied to nine areas along the coast and consisted of assigning values from 1 to 4 (4 being the most critical scenario) to four variables: two to natural indicators and two to socio-economic indicators. The index for each area was obtained from the simple average of the values assigned. In general, the areas facing Guanabara Bay were more sensitive in socio-economic terms, due to population densification and lower per capita income. The areas facing the Atlantic Ocean were more vulnerable in natural terms, due to exposure to waves and the presence of the natural systems protected on land located below the 10-m. These issues highlight the importance of using vulnerability analysis tools, which can enable public authorities to plan and organize the actions in each specific situation.