Thailand's energy security indicators

Abstract

This study presents an assessment of the energy security of Thailand using nineteen indicators. The assessment period is for a 45 year period (1986-2030), and used published data for 1986-2009, and applying three energy scenarios for the period 2010-2030. The three scenarios considered were high economic growth and least cost option (HEG&LC), low carbon society (LCS), and current policy (CP). The results show that LCS scenario shows higher energy security or lower vulnerability to energy risk on a long term. However, to achieve this, the additional target of energy saving by 2030 should be changed from 25% reduction of energy intensity of final energy consumption to 60% energy intensity reduction of primary energy compared to 2009 level. One benefit would be an increase in the non-carbon incentive fuel portfolio by 33% of total primary energy supply in 2030. A reduction in crude oil and natural gas domestic production will be offset by an increase in their imports. CO 2 emission reduction of 123 MtCO 2 and improvements in domestic energy reserves will also result. © 2012 Elsevier Ltd.