Trend of Percentile Climate Indices in Montenegro in the Period 1961–2020

Abstract

The purpose of this study is to determine the frequency trend of daily temperature and precipitation extremes in Montenegro. Firstly, using the Multiple Analysis of Series for Homogenization method (MASHv3.02), the accuracy of daily maximum and minimum temperatures, as well as daily precipitation, from 18 meteorological stations in Montenegro during 1961–2020, was examined. Using percentile distributions, one of the most objective methods in researching modern climate change, time series were formed for four temperature and four precipitation percentile indices on a seasonal and annual level. Finally, the trend was calculated using the Sen Method, while the significance was tested using the Mann–Kendall test. The obtained results demonstrate that there is a significant warming in Montenegro, because the number frequency trend of cold days and nights/warm days and nights decreases/increases (annually up to: −12.9, −18.4, 7.0 and 6.8 days/decade). The trend in the frequency of very wet, moderately wet, moderately dry and very dry days is insignificant, but indicates slight aridization. Significant warming increases water evaporation, which, with additional slight aridization, can pose a problem in the functioning of natural systems as well as in the life and work of the citizens.