Drought Assessment in a Changing Climate: A Review of Climate Normals for Drought Indices

Abstract

ABSTRACT: Should drought be considered an extreme dry period based on the entire record of available data? Or, should drought be considered a low in precipitation variability within the context of a present, contemporary climate? The two most common reference periods are the full period of record (all observed data or as much as possible) and a 30-year reference climatology. However, climate non-stationarity may render the "all-data" ap-proach an inaccurate or obsolete comparison unless a trend is factored in. The aim of this review is to explore the literature for approaches to addressing these issues. The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has recommended a 30-year reference period for most climatological applications since 1935, but for drought assessments and drought indices the modus operandi has been to use as much data as possible. However, in the literature, the “all data” approach has been challenged by evident impacts from climate change-induced non-stationarity. Over the past several years, as potential errors in drought assessments became more apparent due to a stationarity assumption when applying drought indices, several studies have adopted shorter reference periods, with 30-years being the most common. Furthermore, several recent papers have recommended using short reference periods with more frequent data updates for drought assessments to be representative of a contemporary climate. Additionally, at least 18 non-stationary drought indices have been proposed in efforts to retain long datasets and account for non-stationarity in the climate system.