Development of a parametric regional multivariate statistical weather generator for risk assessment studies in areas with limited data availability

Abstract

Risk analysis of water resources systems can use statistical weather generators coupled with hydrologic models to examine scenarios of extreme events caused by climate change. These require multivariate, multi-site models that mimic the spatial, temporal, and cross correlations of observed data. This study developed a statistical weather generator to facilitate bottom-up approaches to assess the impact of climate change on water resources systems for cases of limited data. While existing weather generator models have impressive features, this study suggested a simple weather generator which is straightforward to implement and can employ any distribution function for variables such as precipitation or temperature. It is based on (1) a first-order, two-state Markov chain to simulate precipitation occurrences; (2) the use ofWilks' technique to produce correlated weather variables at multiple sites with the conservation of spatial, temporal, and cross correlations; (3) the capability to vary the statistical parameters of the weather variables. The model was applied to studies of the Diyala River basin in Iraq, which is a case with limited observed records. Results show that it exhibits high values (e.g., over 0.95) for the Nash-Sutcliffe and Kling-Gupta metric tests, preserves the statistical properties of the observed variables, and conserves the spatial, temporal, and cross correlations among the weather variables in the meteorological stations.