Bioenergy and food supply: A spatial-agent dynamic model of agricultural land use for Jiangsu Province in China

Abstract

In this paper we develop an agent-based model to explore a feasible way of simultaneously providing sufficient food and bioenergy feedstocks in China. Concerns over the competition for agricultural land resources between food and bioenergy supply hinder the further development of bioenergy, especially in China, the country that needs to feed the world's largest population. Prior research has suggested the introduction of energy crops and reviewed the resulting agricultural land use change in China. However, there is a lack of quantitative studies which estimate the value, contribution, and impact of bioenergy for specific conditions at the county level and provide adequate information to guide local practices. To fill this gap, we choose the Jiangsu Province in China as a case study, build up a spatial-agent dynamic model of agricultural land use, and perform a sensitivity analysis for important parameters. The simulation results show that straw from conventional crops generally dominates Jiangsu's biomass supply with a contribution above 85%. The sensitivity analyses reveal severe consequences of bioenergy targets for local land use. For Jiangsu Province, reclaimed mudflats, an alternative to arable lands for energy crop plantation, help to secure the local biomass supply and to alleviate the land use conflict between food and biomass production.