Short-term load forecasting for Spanish insular electric systems

Abstract

In any electric power system, the Transmission System Operator (TSO) requires the use of short-term load forecasting algorithms. These predictions are essential for appropriate planning of the energy resources and optimal coordination for the generation agents. This study focuses on the development of a prediction model to be applied to the ten main Spanish islands: seven insular systems in the Canary Islands, and three systems in the Balearic Islands. An exhaustive analysis is presented concerning both the estimation results and the forecasting accuracy, benchmarked against an alternative prediction software and a set of modified models. The developed models are currently being used by the Spanish TSO (Red Eléctrica de España, REE) to make hourly one-day-ahead forecasts of the electricity demand of insular systems.