Market Developments on Chinese International Air Passenger Markets in Light of COVID-19 Policy Measures

Abstract

The world’s governments imposed a plethora of restrictions and quarantine rules to prevent the rapid spread of COVID-19. China was chosen for this study as it was the first market to be impacted. The overall aim of this paper was to analyse international air travel to and from China since the start of COVID-19 and to assess the impact of policy initiatives on seat capacity during this time. The key findings are that implementation of the so called Five one policy in March 2020 was associated with an almost immediate reduction in seat capacity on China to the rest of the world, partially suppressing the more typical impact of underlying GDP and air fares on capacity. It was further found that Chinese international gateways, as airports with substantial proportions of international and connecting traffic, remain the most distressed. Long haul international traffic and revenues from European and North American destinations all experienced unprecedented and sharp reductions. Traffic and revenues from other Asian markets was even more sporadic. Alarmingly, the study extracted that revenues from premium classes were deteriorating much faster than economy class, which is of imminent concern for long-haul carriers reliant on premium traffic coming into the pandemic.