A dynamic analysis of net migration and state employment change

Abstract

The dynamic relationship of net migration and employment change is examined for 10 selected states of the US using a multivariate time series approach - a vector autoregression (VAR) model. Granger causality tests and dynamic multipliers provide information on the dynamic process. The results suggest a state-level process in which employment change occurs first, and net migration follows with a lag. The procedure appears promising in investigating the timing of net migration and regional employment change. -Authors