Modelling rainfall-induced landslides at a regional scale, a machine learning based approach

Abstract

In Italy, rainfall represents the most common triggering factor for landslides; thus, many Italian Regional Departments of Civil Protection are setting up warning systems based on rainfall recordings. Common methods are mainly based on empirical relationships that provide the rainfall thresholds above which the occurrence of landslide phenomena is likely to be expected. In recent years, the use of machine learning approaches has gained popularity in landslide susceptibility analysis and prediction. To support the operational early warning system of Liguria Civil Protection Department for landslides hazard, we propose the implementation of a polynomial Kernel regularized least squares regression (KRLS) algorithm, for predicting the daily occurrence of shallow landslides in the five Alert Zones in Liguria (North Western Italy). The model provides an estimate of the number of landslides associated with the set of three different hydrological features, also used for the Hydrological Assessment procedure: the soil moisture, the accumulated precipitation over 12 h and the precipitation peak over 3 h. Results of the model are converted to an Alert Scenario of landslide occurrence, based on the magnitude of the expected event and identified according to the National and Regional legislation (Regional Civil Protection guidelines D.G.R. n. 1116, 23/12/2020). The performance of the predictive model (e.g. accuracy of 93%) is deemed satisfactory and the methodology is considered a valuable support to the operational early warning system of Liguria Civil Protection Department. The choice of predictive variables allows, in future development, the values obtained from historical data to be replaced by those obtained from meteorological forecast models, introducing the use of the developed model in the operational forecasting chain.