Projections of changes of areal evapotranspiration for different land-use units in the Wielkopolska Region (Poland)

Abstract

Strong global warming has been observed in the last three decades. Central Europe, including Poland, is not an exception. Moreover, climate projections for Poland foresee further warming as well as changes in the quantity as well as spatial and seasonal distribution of precipitation. This will result in changes in all elements of the water balance, including the areal evapotranspiration. For estimating the areal evapotranspiration, the heat balance method (HBM) is used in this paper for the growing season (March–October), whereas for the remaining months (November–February), evaporation is calculated according to the Ivanov equation. Values of areal evapotranspiration from selected land units are examined and compared for the average conditions in two time horizons, i.e. 1961–1990 (control period) and 2061–2090 (projection horizon) over the Wielkopolska Region in Poland, based on multi-model ensemble climate projections. Projections for the future, based on the MPI-M-REMO model, indicate that the regional average increases of the annual sum of areal evapotranspiration (connected mainly with an increase of air temperature) is equal to 45 mm, with the biggest changes during winter. In the growing season, the highest increases are expected to appear in July and June. As regards the spatial distribution, the highest increases are projected for the areas with presently highest evapotranspiration, e.g. the southwestern parts of the region.