Migration intention and Indigenous social networks in the place of origin: a socio-centric network analysis in the rural western highlands of Guatemala

Abstract

The rural highlands of San Marcos are among the highest-volume migrant-sending departments in Guatemala. This is the first study to explore the social network dynamics predictive of emigration from an Indigenous Maya community in Guatemala to the United States. It utilizes sociocentric network data in place of origin to assess drivers of migration. Using sociocentric census data of a single village (N = 653), we assessed whether close social ties with people who have already migrated were associated with an individual’s plans to migrate within the year. We also explored network factors that influence the decision to emigrate or remain in place. Our findings show that, controlling for remittances and demographic characteristics, having an emigrant tie in the United States alone was not predictive of plans to emigrate. Those with a close friend or neighbor who already emigrated were more likely to emigrate themselves. In terms of network variables, those with a higher number of social ties in the village were less likely to emigrate, and individuals more central in a network were significantly less likely to want to emigrate. This study may provide insight into factors driving sustained out-migration or influencing staying in place in rural Guatemala.