Development and validation of a prediction model of catheter-related thrombosis in patients with cancer undergoing chemotherapy based on ultrasonography results and clinical information

Abstract

Central venous catheters can be used conveniently to deliver medications and improve comfort in patients with cancer. However, they can cause major complications. The current study aimed to develop and validate an individualized nomogram for early prediction of the risk of catheter-related thrombosis (CRT) in patients with cancer receiving chemotherapy. In total, 647 patients were included in the analysis. They were randomly assigned to the training (n = 431) and validation (n = 216) cohorts. A nomogram for predicting the risk of CRT in the training cohort was developed based on logistic regression analysis results. The accuracy and discriminatory ability of the model were determined using area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) values and calibration plots. Multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that body mass index, risk of cancer-related thrombosis, d-dimer level, and blood flow velocity were independent risk factors of CRT. The calibration plot showed an acceptable agreement between the predicted and actual probabilities of CRT. The AUROC values of the nomogram were 0.757 (95% confidence interval: 0.717–0.809) and 0.761 (95% confidence interval: 0.701–0.821) for the training and validation cohorts, respectively. Our model presents a novel, user-friendly tool for predicting the risk of CRT in patients with cancer receiving chemotherapy. Moreover, it can contribute to clinical decision-making.