Identity-policy discrepancy: crisis perception, third-order change and the shifting foreign policy trajectories of China and Japan toward Northeast Asia

Abstract

Although common, the identity-policy discrepancy has yet to be systematically theorised in the Identity Constructivist literature. This article bridges this gap, leveraging insights from Historical and Sociological Institutionalism, Norm Constructivism, and Post-structuralism to explore the theoretical and empirical weight of such discrepancies. I argue that discrepancies tied to a nation’s hegemonic narratives can spark crises, engender compelling expectations upon recognition, and drive third-order changes as actors endeavour to address these discrepancies. The article illuminates the significant role that discrepancies played in molding the foreign policies of China and Japan, with a focus on regional institution-building in Northeast Asia. The article emphasises the stark contrast between Hu Jintao’s Peaceful Riser identity and his assertive policy actions, alongside the Democratic Party of Japan’s (DPJ) Pacifist State identity juxtaposed with policies akin to those of the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP). These discrepancies significantly shaped the policy approaches and identity construction of their successors.