Development of the forecast model for management of the disbalance between the labor markets and educational services in the construction industry

Abstract

Purpose: In this article, the procedure of the development of the forecast model is described. Within the model based on expert assessment factors that affect the imbalance between labour markets and educational services in the construction industry have been identified. Graphical visualization of models in the form of graphs is presented. On this basis, scenarios of social and economic development of the region in this area (optimistic, realistic and pessimistic scenarios) are defined. Methodology: The developed method for constructing a predictive model includes the following steps. Stage 1 - a comprehensive consideration of the factors, Stage 2 - conducting the procedure for the selection of experts, Stage 3 - a preliminary assessment of the importance of groups of factors, Stage 4 - the construction of a system of interdependent equations describing LM and ESM, Stage 5 - development of a set of graph-analytical models that visualize the nature and direction of the influence of factors and groups of factors on LM and ESM Result: While finding an imbalance between the labor and educational services markets, the most significant criteria from those considered in the study were identified. Oriented graphs visualizing the direct and indirect influence of significant criteria on the markets in question were constructed. The importance of the impact of potential measures, both on the labor market and on the educational services market, was calculated. Applications: This research can be used for universities, teachers, and students. Novelty/Originality: In this research, the model of Development of the Forecast Model for Management of the Disbalance between the Labor Markets and Educational Services in the Construction Industry is presented in a comprehensive and complete manner.