Political Budget Cycles in Early Versus Regular Elections: The Case of Serbia

Abstract

The paper analyses Political Budget Cycles in the context of a young post-communist democracy, Serbia. The authors deploy well-established methodological (time series) approaches to examine the general government budget balance (fiscal deficit) in conjunction with elections. The findings suggest that there is clear evidence of higher fiscal deficit prior to elections—however, this is the case only for regular (scheduled) elections and not so for snap (early called) elections. The paper contributes to the PBC literature by revealing different incumbent behaviour in regular versus early elections, thus highlighting the importance of distinguishing between these types of elections in the domain of PBC research.