Risk Assessment and Prevention Planning for Collapse Geological Hazards Considering Extreme Rainfall—A Case Study of Laoshan District in Eastern China

Abstract

Geological disasters refer to adverse geological phenomena that occur under the influence of natural or human factors and cause damage to human life and property. Establishing prevention and control zones based on geological disaster risk assessment results in land planning and management is crucial for ensuring safe regional development. In recent years, there has been an increase in extreme rainfall events, so it is necessary to conduct effective geological hazard and risk assessments for different extreme rainfall conditions. Based on the first national geological disaster risk survey results, this paper uses the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) combined with the information method (IM) to construct four extreme rainfall conditions, namely, 10-year, 20-year, 50-year, and 100-year return periods. The susceptibility, hazard, vulnerability, and risk of geological disasters in the Laoshan District in eastern China are evaluated, and prevention and control zones are established based on the evaluation results. The results show that: (1) There are 121 collapse geological disasters in Laoshan District, generally at a low susceptibility level. (2) A positive correlation exists between extreme rainfall and hazards/risks. With the rainfall condition changing from a 10-year return period to a 100-year return period, the proportion of high-hazard zones increased from 20% to 41%, and high-risk zones increased from 31% to 51%, respectively. The Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) proved that the assessment accuracy was acceptable. (3) Key, sub-key, and general prevention zones have been established, and corresponding prevention and control suggestions have been proposed, providing a reference for geological disaster prevention and early warning in other regions.