The alternative-outcomes effect.

Abstract

Distributions of possible scenario outcomes were manipulated without changing the probabilities of focal outcomes (e.g., you hold 3 raffle tickets and 7 other people each hold 1 vs. you hold 3 and another person holds 7). Participants' probability estimates confirmed that beliefs about the objective likelihood of the focal outcomes were largely unaffected by the manipulations. As expected, however, nonnumeric certainty estimates (Studies 1-3), feelings of concern (Study 4), and choice behaviors (Study 5)revealed that the manipulations did affect subjective certainty. The consistent direction of this alternative-outcomes effect and findings from Study 6 suggest that comparisons between the focal outcome and the strongest alternative have an important influence on subjective certainty. A potential function for these comparison processes is described, and their similarities with social comparison and social judgment processes are discussed.