Aircraft Dispute, Wine, and the US-EU Trade War: Implications for US Consumers and Wine Suppliers

Abstract

This paper estimates changes in demand for imported wines by source country and resulting welfare effects due to Section 301 tariffs imposed on certain European wines in October 2019. A two-stage expenditure allocation scheme is used to estimate the import demand for red, white, and other wines in the first stage, and source-differentiated red wine and white wine demand in the second stage. From derived price elasticities measuring first and second stage interactions, welfare measures are simulated capturing effects of the new tariffs on both taxed and non-taxed exporters as well as the US importers of red and white wine.