An interpretable machine learning framework for diagnosis and prognosis of COVID-19

Abstract

Coronaviruses have affected the lives of people around the world. Increasingly, studies have indicated that the virus is mutating and becoming more contagious. Hence, the pressing priority is to swiftly and accurately predict patient outcomes. In addition, physicians and patients increasingly need interpretability when building machine models in healthcare. We propose an interpretable machine framework(KISM) that can diagnose and prognose patients based on blood test datasets. First, we use k-nearest neighbors, isolated forests, and SMOTE to pre-process the original blood test datasets. Seven machine learning tools Support Vector Machine, Extra Tree, Random Forest, Gradient Boosting Decision Tree, eXtreme Gradient Boosting, Logistic Regression, and ensemble learning were then used to diagnose and predict COVID-19. In addition, we used SHAP and scikit-learn post-hoc interpretability to report feature importance, allowing healthcare professionals and artificial intelligence models to interact to suggest biomarkers that some doctors may have missed. The 10-fold cross-validation of two public datasets shows that the performance of KISM is better than that of the current state-of-the-art methods. In the diagnostic COVID-19 task, an AUC value of 0.9869 and an accuracy of 0.9787 were obtained, and ultimately Leukocytes, platelets, and Proteina C reativa mg/dL were found to be the most indicative biomarkers for the diagnosis of COVID-19. An AUC value of 0.9949 and an accuracy of 0.9677 were obtained in the prognostic COVID-19 task and Age, LYMPH, and WBC were found to be the most indicative biomarkers for identifying the severity of the patient.