Many-Objective Hierarchical Pre-Release Flood Operation Rule Considering Forecast Uncertainty

Abstract

Flood control operation of cascade reservoirs is an important technology to reduce flood disasters and increase economic benefits. Flood forecast information can help reservoir managers make better use of flood resources and reduce flood risks. In this paper, a hierarchical pre-release flood operation rule considering the flood forecast and its uncertainty information is proposed for real-time flood control. A many-objective optimization model considering the cascade reservoir’s power generation objective, flood control objective, and navigation objective is established. Then, a region search evolutionary algorithm is applied to optimize the many-objective optimization model in a real-world case study upstream of the Yangtze River basin. The optimization experimental results show that the region search evolutionary algorithm can balance convergence and diversity well, and the HV value is 40% higher than the MOEA/D algorithm. The simulation flood control results of cascade reservoirs upstream of the Yangtze River demonstrate that the optimized flood control rule can increase the average multi-year power generation of cascade reservoirs by a maximum of 27.72 × 108 kWh under the condition of flood control safety. The rules proposed in this paper utilize flood resources by identifying runoff forecast information, and pre-release to the flood limit level 145 m before the big flood occurs, so as to ensure the safety downstream and the dam’s own flood control and provide reliable decision support for reservoir managers.