Correlative analysis of climate impacts in an Andean municipality of Colombia

Abstract

The municipality of Pasto (Colombia) is an intermediate, emerging city of the Colombian Andes, which is vulnerable to the impacts of climate change due to its environmental conditions, mountainous morphology, moderately humid climate, and socio-economic structure. This research aims at identifying the impacts of historical trends in climate variables on the main urban elements of the municipality of Pasto. The study uses the correlational method to determine the relationships between climate variables and some impacted urban elements between 2004 and 2019. The adjusted models allow identifying possible trajectories in the evolution of urban variables affected by climate change, population growth, and culture. Results show that climate variability produces negative quadratic trajectories in crop yields and flood events; positive quadratic patterns in landslides, forest fires, the prevalence of acute diarrheal diseases (ADD), and acute respiratory infections (ARI); and linear patterns in water availability, livestock production and food security. In general, the urban variables show a departure from equilibrium when exposed to higher temperatures and precipitation, which affect the reliability of crop yields, food security, water availability, natural disasters, and public health in the municipality of Pasto.