FORECASTING OF AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION RESULTS IN SOUTH DENPASAR USING QUADRATIC TREND METHOD BASED GIS

Abstract

Agriculture is an activity of exploiting natural resources performed by humans to meet their needs, especially as staple food. Agricultural activities can produce foodstuffs, raw materials for industry, energy and also can balance the natural ecosystems. People may have forgotten the function of agriculture for several factors. Mentioning one, the population growth, with the result that land conversion is done to housing. Another, an economic concern that being a farmer does not guarantee the future, so that people have turned to other livelihoods that are considered promising, and other factors. Based on these facts that there has been a decline in agricultural land from 2011-2014 in Denpasar area, especially South Denpasar District, which can affect the amount of agricultural production as staple food. Total production of staple crops, especially rice plants, has decreased significantly in 2014.It became great concern to government and people in finding a solution. Due to lack of information on the impact of agricultural land conversion that affects the production, so that food needs are not met. Based on those problems, it is necessary to forecast the number of agricultural production using Quadratic Trend Method based on GIS (Geographic Information System) application using ArcView software. The results of this forecast that are implemented with a digital map can be used as a reference to the government in making decisions and create people awareness how important it is to preserve agriculture.