Forecasting Indonesia's electricity generation: An application of long-range energy alternatives planning

Abstract

The primary focus of this paper is to provide an energy forecast for electricity generation in Indonesia. The modelling method with Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning System (LEAP) software is implemented with the interpolation with growth, linear forecast, exponential forecast, and logistic forecast upon two projection scenarios of business as usual (BAU) and with current government policy (CGP). Input data used are including the past data of electricity generation from 2005 to 2017, the target electricity generation from 2019 to 2028 and its share based on Indonesia's policies and planning on electricity generation, and other electricity generation highlights based on the defining policy. The result analysis for the BAU data projects the total energy generation of 1,306.17 Terawatt-hour (TWh), comprising of 47.7% coal, 43.4% gas, 3.51% hydro, 2.32% oil, and 1.85% geothermal with the remaining percentage from other renewable energy resources. On the second scenarios with current government policy, the model predicts electricity generation to be 1,404 TWh, consisting of 54.4% coal, 22% gas, 10.93% hydro, 0.4% oil, 9.63% geothermal and the rest percentage from other renewable energy resources. The gap in the two results in the renewable energy mix shows the actual challenge that will require the government to take significant action to realize the plan.