Risk Prediction of International Stock Markets with Complex Spatio-Temporal Correlations: A Spatio-Temporal Graph Convolutional Regression Model Integrating Uncertainty Quantification

Abstract

Against the backdrop of the “dual circulation” development pattern and the in-depth advancement of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), the interconnection between China and global financial markets has significantly intensified. The spatio-temporal correlation risks faced in cross-border investment activities have become highly complex, posing a severe challenge to traditional investment risk prediction methods. Existing research has three limitations: first, traditional analytical tools struggle to capture the dynamic spatio-temporal correlations among financial markets; second, mainstream deep learning models lack the ability to directly output interpretable economic parameters; third, the uncertainty of model prediction results has not been systematically quantified for a long time, leading to a lack of credibility assessment in practical applications. To address these issues, this study constructs a spatio-temporal graph convolutional neural network panel regression model (STGCN-PDR) that incorporates uncertainty quantification. This model innovatively designs a hybrid architecture of “one layer of spatial graph convolution + two layers of temporal convolution”, modeling the spatial dependencies among global stock markets through graph networks and capturing the dynamic evolution patterns of market fluctuations with temporal convolutional networks. It particularly embeds an interpretable regression layer, enabling the model to directly output regression coefficients with economic significance, significantly enhancing the decision-making reference value of risk prediction. By designing multi-round random initialization perturbation experiments and introducing the coefficient of variation index to quantify the stability of model parameters, it achieves a systematic assessment of prediction uncertainty. Empirical results based on stock index data from 20 countries show that compared with the benchmark models, STGCN-PDR demonstrates significant advantages in both spatio-temporal feature extraction efficiency and risk prediction accuracy, providing a more interpretable and reliable quantitative analysis tool for cross-border investment decisions in complex market environments.