An Improved Machine Learning-Driven Framework for Cryptocurrencies Price Prediction with Sentimental Cautioning

Abstract

Cryptocurrencies, recognized by their extreme volatility due to dependency on multiple direct and indirect factors, offer a significant challenge regarding precise price forecasting. This uncertainty has led to investment hesitation within the digital currency market. Previous research attempts have presented methodologies for price forecasting and trend prediction in cryptocurrencies. However, these forecasts have typically suffered from increased error rates, leaving the opportunity for improvement in this field. Furthermore, the influence of sentiment-based factors could compromise the reliability of price predictions. In this research, we have proposed a machine learning-driven framework that provides precise cryptocurrency price projections and adds an alert mechanism to guide investors. Our fundamental analyzer, Bi-LSTM and GRU hybrid model use historical data of digital currencies to train and reliably anticipate future values. Complementing this, a sentiment analyzer, utilizing a BERT and VADER hybrid model, analyzes sentiments to assess the forecast price as trustworthy or uncertain. Besides assisting investor decision-making, this technique also helps risk management in the dynamic realm of cryptocurrency. Our suggested approach delivers highly precise price predictions with dramatically decreased error rates compared to prior competitive studies. The proposed Bi-LSTM-GRU-BERT-VADER (BLGBV) model is tested for three cryptocurrencies, namely BTC, ETH, and Dogecoin and reports an average root mean square error (RMSE) of 0.0241%, 0.0645%, and 0.0978%, respectively.