Modeling as Visioning: Exploring the Impact of Criminal Justice Reform on Health of Populations with Substance Use Disorders

Abstract

In the context of historic reckoning with the role of the criminal-legal system as a structural driver of health harms, there is mounting evidence that punitive drug policies have failed to prevent problematic drug use while fueling societal harms. In this explainer article, we discuss how simulation modeling provides a methodological framework to explore the potential outcomes (beneficial and harmful) of various drug policy alternatives, from incremental to radical. We discuss potential simulation modeling opportunities while calling for a more active role of simulation modeling in visioning and operationalizing transformative change. This article discusses opportunities for simulation modeling in projecting health and economic impacts (beneficial and harmful) of drug-related criminal justice reforms. We call on modelers to explore radical interventions to reduce drug-related harm and model grand alternative futures in addition to more probable scenarios, with a goal of opening up policy discourse to these options.