External validation of a clinical scoring system for hematuria

Abstract

Background: The aim of this study was to evaluate the accuracy of a new scoring system in Korean patients with hematuria at high risk of bladder cancer. Materials and Methods: A total of 319 consecutive patients presenting with painless hematuria without a history of bladder cancer were analyzed, from the period of August 2012 to February 2014. All patients underwent clinical examination, and 22 patients with incomplete data were excluded from the final validation data set. The scoring system included four clinical parameters: Age (≥50 = 2 vs. < 50 =1), gender (male = 2 vs. female = 1), history of smoking (smoker/ex-smoker = 4 vs. non-smoker = 2) and nature of the hematuria (gross = 6 vs. microscopic = 2). Results: The area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve (95% confidence interval) of the scoring system was 0.718 (0.655-0.777). The calibration plot demonstrated a slight underestimation of bladder cancer probability, but the model had reasonable calibration. Decision curve analysis revealed that the use of model was associated with net benefit gains over the treat-all strategy. The scoring system performed well across a wide range of threshold probabilities (15%-45%). Conclusions: The scoring system developed is a highly accurate predictive tool for patients with hematuria. Although further improvements are needed, utilization of this system may assist primary care physicians and other healthcare practitioners in determining a patient's risk of bladder cancer.