Optimizing a nationwide supply chain for winter oilseeds in sustainable aviation fuel production: Pennycress, camelina, and carinata

Abstract

The U.S. aims to produce approximately 133 billion liters of sustainable aviation fuel annually by 2050 to address greenhouse gas emissions from the aviation sector and reduce reliance on petroleum-derived fuels. Meeting this target requires significant scaling of feedstock production and supply chain infrastructure. This research evaluates the national viability of winter oilseeds — pennycress, camelina, and carinata — as feedstocks as time progresses and at different demand levels. Leveraging crop production forecasts and a Mixed Integer Linear Programming model, this analysis determined strategic locations for processing facilities and biorefineries to minimize costs. Findings reveal that if all oilseed-producing counties participate, these crops could generate 4.24 billion liters of SAF by 2048 — only 3% of the 2050 target — at a cost of $0.68/liter of bio-oil at the biorefinery gate. Including meal credit in the model can reduce overall costs by up to 70%. Additional scenarios were examined for specific SAF demand levels: 1.32, 2.65, and 3.97 billion liters annually, representing 1%, 2%, and 3% of the 2050 target, respectively. Results estimated bio-oil unit costs ranging from $0.48-$0.64 per liter (cost excludes bio-oil to SAF conversion cost and co-product credits from this conversion). The analysis is limited by fixed processing capacities, reliance on truck-based deliveries of winter oilseeds, and the exclusion of downstream logistics beyond the biorefinery gate. Despite these constraints, this study contributes to SAF research by providing a scalable optimization framework and highlighting the critical need for enhanced infrastructure and diversified feedstocks to achieve U.S. SAF production targets efficiently.