Sensitivity to convective schemes on precipitation simulated by the regional climate model MAR over Belgium (1987-2017)

Abstract

The aim of this study is to assess the sensitivity of convective precipitation modelled by the regional climate model MAR (Modèle Atmosphérique Régional) over 1987-2017 to four newly implemented convective schemes: the Bechtold scheme coming from the MESO-NH regional model and the Betts-Miller-Janjić, Kain-Fritsch and modified Tiedtke schemes coming from the WRF regional model. MAR version 3.9 is used here at a resolution of 10 km over a domain covering Belgium using the ERA-Interim reanalysis as forcing. The simulated precipitation is compared against SYNOP and E-OBS gridded precipitation data. Trends in total and convective precipitation over 1987-2017 are discussed. None of the MAR experiments compares better with observations than the others and they all show the same trends in (extreme) precipitation. Over the period 1987-2017, MAR suggests a significant increase in the mean annual precipitation amount over the North Sea but a significant decrease over High Belgium.