Predicting Stock Market Volatility from Candlestick Charts: A Multiple Attention Mechanism Graph Neural Network Approach

Abstract

As an important part of financial market, stock market price volatility analysis has been the focus of academic and industry attention. Candlestick chart, as the most widely used indicator for evaluating stock market price volatility, has been intensively studied and explored. With the continuous development of computer technology, the stock market analysis method based on candlestick chart is gradually changed from manual to intelligent algorithm. However, how to effectively use stock market graphical indicators to analyze stock market price fluctuations has been pending solution, and deep learning algorithms based on structured data such as deep neural networks (DNN) and recurrent neural networks (RNNs) always have the problems of making it difficult to capture the laws and low generalization ability for stock market graphical indicators data processing. Therefore, this paper proposes a quantification method of stock market candlestick chart based on Hough variation, using the graph structure embedding method to represent candlestick chart features and multiple attention graph neural network for stock market price fluctuation prediction. The experimental results show that the proposed method can interpret the candlestick chart features more accurately and has superiority performance over state-of-the-art deep learning methods, including SVM, CNN, LSTM, and CNN-LSTM. Relative to these algorithms, the proposed method achieves an average performance improvement of 20.51% in terms of accuracy and further achieves at least 26.98% improvement in strategy returns in quantitative investment experiments.