Multiplicadores fiscais dependentes do ciclo econômico: O que é possível dizer para o Brasil?

Abstract

The purpose of this paper is to investigate whether government spending multipliers differ according to the state of the business cycle for the Brazilian economy during the period 1999:T1-2017:T2. In order to do so we use Jordà’s Local Projection Method to estimate impulse response functions and fiscal multipliers under two different regimes: recession and expansion. Contrary to the most common results in the literature, the multipliers are greater in expansions than in recessions, although the difference between them is not statistically significant. Results are robust, except when we use the output gap to differentiate the states of the economy.