A method for estimating the potential long-range predictability of precipitation over Western Australia

Abstract

A methodology for estimating the potential predictability of seasonal mean climate variables where the daily data consist of dichotomous (on/off) events, such as precipitation, is described and applied to Western Australian rainfall for the period 1951-2000. The method relies on determining an estimate for the intermonth correlations for precipitation and utilizes a stochastic two-state first-order Markov chain model fitted to the daily data.